Economic shocks such as the global financial crisis and the pandemic have laid the groundwork for a rise in populist political parties by entrenching voter apathy, academics have claimed.
According to a research paper published by the London School of Economics and shared with The Times, economic insecurity steers people toward voting for populist political parties or not voting at all.
The academics said that 40 per cent of the increase in populist parties’ vote share could be explained by the drop in turnout after economic shocks.
Women and people with higher levels of education, when they vote, are less likely to support a populist party, the researchers said.
The findings shed light on the growth in vote share that parties such as Nigel Farage’s Reform in the UK and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France have captured in recent years.
Since 2008, the global economy has suffered a series of sharp shocks, including the banking crisis, pandemic and energy price surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Britain has also had to contend with Brexit in 2016, complicating trade with continental Europe.
People who lose their jobs, experience a loss of income or are exposed to competition from foreign workers are more likely to not vote or back a populist candidate when they do, the paper found.
The researchers argued that people were likely to blame mainstream politicians and markets for failing to protect their living standards.
“The rare combination of the inability of both markets and governments to provide security has shaken the confidence in traditional political parties and institutions, inducing frustration and fears aggravated by growing threats from mass immigration and globalisation.”
The paper was written by Massimo Morelli, professor of political science and economics at Bocconi University in Milan, and three other academics. The findings were mainly based on an examination of data contained in the European Social Survey, which tracks individuals’ changing values, attitudes and situations.
Economic insecurity is defined by the researchers as the degree to which an individual has lost income and experienced periods of unemployment. It also accounts for how concerned a worker is by being displaced in their job by an immigrant worker.
In the UK, unemployment has been historically low for the past decade, but economists have partly attributed this to a rise in insecure jobs. Real wages are barely higher than they were in 2008, representing the longest stretch of pay stagnation in decades.